As previously mentioned, the US dollar was sent on a roller coaster ride in response to the recent FOMC decision and Powell press conference. It is the pace to close at low session levels judging by the performance in the DXY Index a common reference basket of the major USD currency pairs. Forex News and alerts from around the world The US dollar ripped off then plunged during Wednesday’s trading session, as forex traders digested conflicting Fed TheOctober meeting messages. The Canadian dollar paused its earnings as the Bank rate decision of Canada had something for everyone. It will probably take the spotlight during Wednesday’s trading session in light of the risk of high-impact event surrounding the Loonie. The sliding Canadian dollar, already down 16 percent last year, is likely to deliver a hammer blow to the already-failing consumer confidence and trigger a wave of price increases on a wide range of imported goods and services, Porter and Reitzes of BMO warned.

The central bankers were notorious building blocks for the formisinterpretingthe aggressive inflation and the looks of the Canadian central bank to be posed in asimilarfashion. The bank had recently been indicating that a rise in interest rates in May was likely, so Carney, instead of being vague about the possibility of a rate hike in May was a dovish change. In a stark contrast to most major central banks, the Bank of Canada has left its interest rate unchanged, despite dovish actions and recently revealed guidelines from the Fed, among others. He has not raised rates in almost seven years. According to the press release accompanying the July BOC interest rate decision, the central bank of Canada stated that the Governing Council will continue to monitor incoming data and pay particular attention to developments in the energy sector and the impact of trade conflicts on the Canada’s growth prospects and inflation. Canada’s commercial banks failed to match last week’s central bank’s 25-point rate-cutting rate, with the six largest lenders lowering their loan rate first by 15 basis points.

Alas, the imminent release of Canadian inflation could cause a protracted selloff in the Canadian dollar, if inflation collapses. Bank officials seem relatively indifferent that inflation has moved lower in recent months and now sits well below the bank’s 2-per-cent target. A top Bank of Canada official says economic growth has spread to most regions and industries in Canada the latest clue that the central bank is considering when to start raising interest rates.

Canadian inflation and retail inflation on Friday are likely to influence market speculation on how soon the Bank of Canada (BoC) could hike Canadian interest rates again. Unlike other central banks whose economies may be in worse conditions, the BoC does not need to be overly proactive they can wait and see how the economy class tariffs worldwide before acting. Domestic economy doing well, but exports are the problem If we looked at the Canadian economy exclusively, it can easily be argued that the country is on the road to recovery.

Trading involves risks, including the possible loss of capital and other losses, and past performance is not indicative of future results. For more information on market positioning and bullish or bearish bias, traders can turn to the Sent Sentimentdata client, which is updated in real time and covers various currency pairs, commodities and stock indices. RESTORE DOLLAR RISK Canadian (overnight) broadly speaking, forex trader options appear to have a bearish bias toward CAD price action ahead of the Canadian dollar-based inflation report overnight Canadian risk reversal readings.

The Canadians report inflation issues to Loonie forex traders mainly due to the fact that it stands to weigh on market expectations for a cut in future BOC interest rates. It is generally desirable in a healthy market to see a high-low spread of at least 20 points, which indicates that investors have clear preferences in stocks that they want to hold, rather than all the boats-raised-in-a-rise mentality – tide that dominated 2013. Again, it is generally desirable in a healthy market to see a high-low spread of at least 20 points.

Inherently, then, while market rates are strongly backed by rate cuts now, it also seems that there is a significant risk of back biasing the Fed’s swing towards hawk very quickly if a US-China trade agreement materializes. The labor market and prime rates are the key ingredients for the central bank, said Terry Carr, head of Canadian fixed income at Toronto’s Manulife Asset Management Ltd., which oversees about $ 22 billion in Canada fixed-income assets. A irregular labor market and reluctance among lenders to reduce prime rates are adding forecasts for continued low oil prices to stimulate bets the Bank of Canada will cut its financial burdens again in March. Canadian consumers are already carrying record levels of debt, it is noted.
 

CANADIAN DOLLAR, AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD, GBP/CAD – TALKING POINTS
Canadian Dollar has been weakening on BoC easing expectations
CAD may depreciate if Canada CPI, retail sales data disappoints
Where do AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD and GBP/CAD stand from here?
Build confidence in your own Canadian Dollar trading strategy with the help of our free guide!

CANADIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTALS – CPI DATA, BANK OF CANADA EASING BETS
The Canadian Dollar has been losing ground against the US Dollar and British Pound as of late, but it has fared relatively better against the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. The former has been battered by rising beats of near-term easing from the RBA. As this week goes on, there may be a chance that CAD loses its ground against AUD and NZD.

Economic news flow out of Canada has been on average churning out at the most disappointing relative to expectations since the end of last year. The Citi Economic Surprise Index for Canada stands at 1.2 as of this writing, down from a peak of 136.40 in June. An increasingly positive outcome translates into higher margins of upside data outcomes. The same health and vigor seen during the summer has now been lost.

As a result, expectations of easing from the Bank of Canada have been on the rise. The central bank has managed to avoid cutting this year, as opposed to the general trend from its major counterparts. With that in mind, similar disappointing data out of the country could underpin near-term BoC easing bets and sink the Canadian Dollar. The markets are pricing in about a 43 percent chance of a 25bp rate cut in January.

October Canadian CPI data will cross the wires on Wednesday. Headline inflation is expected to clock in unchanged from September at 1.9 percent y/y and 0.3% m/m (up from -0.4% prior). On Friday, local retail sales will be released. Sales are expected to shrink 0.3% m/m in September, contracting faster than the -0.1% outcome in August. A worse-than-expected result would mean the sharpest deterioration so far this year.

AUD/CAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
AUD/CAD has been sinking towards a near-term rising support line from October. This followed a stall under key resistance (0.9105 – 0.9144) which was accompanied by negative RSI divergence. The latter indicated fading upside momentum. The trend line may hold, pushing AUD/CAD higher towards another retest of the psychological area above it. Otherwise, a daily close lower may expose October lows.

AUD/CAD DAILY CHART
Canadian Dollar Forecast in AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD, GBP/CAD Rates
AUD/CAD Chart Created in TradingView

NZD/CAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Meanwhile, NZD/CAD has also stalled at the critical falling channel from March – blue lines below. Sitting under the pair is a near-term rising support line from October. A dismal Canadian CPI report may push prices into and above the key resistance range between 0.8459 and 0.8503. Confirming this with another daily close to the upside could pave the way for a reversal of the dominant downtrend since March.

NZD/CAD DAILY CHART
Canadian Dollar Forecast in AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD, GBP/CAD Rates
NZD/CAD Chart Created in TradingView

GBP/CAD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
This is as GBP/CAD closed above resistance at 1.7094 on volatile UK election polling. However, prices have stalled under rising support from October – pink lines below. The presence of negative RSI divergence shows fading upside momentum which may precede a turn lower. That would place the focus on a near-term rising support line from October – blue-dashed line. A daily close under this exposes 1.6851 followed by 1.6727.

GBP/CAD DAILY CHART
Canadian Dollar Forecast in AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD, GBP/CAD Rates
GBP/CAD Chart Created in TradingView

FX TRADING RESOURCES
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See how the Canadian Dollar is viewed by the trading community at the DailyFX Sentiment Page
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— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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